UNDP Forecasts Strong Economic Recovery for Venezuela: Oil Revenues Set to Surge by 50% with Projected 7% Growth

Original article: PNUD proyecta fuerte repunte para Venezuela: ingresos petroleros subirían 50% y la economía crecería más de 7% The economy of Venezuela is set to experience a substantial recovery, projecting a growth of 7. 4% in 2026 compared to last year, according to forecasts from the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP). This outcome is significantly influenced by a 50% increase in oil revenue derived from oil exports.

The UN agency anticipates that the oil activity in the Caribbean nation will grow by 11. 5%, with crude production expected to reach 1,211,000 barrels per day (bpd), reflecting a 12% increase (130,000 bpd) compared to the official figures recorded in 2025, which averaged 1,081,000 bpd. Additionally, it forecasts a growth of 6.

9% in the non-oil gross domestic product (GDP). The UNDP notes in its report titled “Macroeconomic Performance of Venezuela – Fourth Quarter 2025 and Outlook for 2026”, published in April, that the projected scenario for this year is determined by structural changes in the economic, institutional, and regulatory environment that emerged from January 3, when U. S.

President Donald Trump ordered special operations forces to execute a military operation resulting in the kidnapping of Venezuela’s constitutional president, Nicolás Maduro, and his wife, Cilia Flores, who were transported to U. S. territory.

In the absence of the head of state, the Supreme Court of Justice (TSJ), in compliance with the provisions of the Constitution, appointed then-Executive Vice President Delcy Rodríguez as acting president, who was sworn in by the National Assembly on January 5, becoming the first woman in history to govern Venezuela. Power and Oil in the New Phase of U. S.

-Venezuela Relations Under Rodríguez’s leadership, the tense political, diplomatic, and economic relations between Caracas and Washington have entered a new phase that includes a possible opening for the development of a bilateral agenda. The oil sector has been a key factor in the negotiation process. Donald Trump announced that the Venezuelan government agreed to deliver up to 50 million barrels of “high-quality” oil to be marketed in the U.

S. market. However, the Republican magnate stated that the revenues from these sales will be managed under his supervision to ensure they benefit both the Venezuelan and U.

S. populations. He also invited U.

S. oil companies to participate and invest in energy projects in Venezuela, which has proven and certified oil reserves exceeding 303 billion barrels. As part of this rapprochement, the Trump administration has lifted a range of financial and economic sanctions imposed on Caracas, and in mid-January, Rodríguez announced agreements with the U.

S. for the commercialization of Venezuelan oil worth 500 million dollars (USD), which will allow for the injection of foreign currency into the Caribbean nation. Oil and Gas Agreements with Italy and the United Kingdom Venezuelan crude barrels are not limited to the U.

S. and target the international market, following the National Assembly’s approval in mid-January of the reform to the Hydrocarbons Law, aimed at encouraging the opening of the oil sector to private capital, with an eye on revitalizing the industry and attracting foreign investments. As a testament to the progress on this economic strategy, the acting president announced this week the consolidation of a high-level alliance between the Ministry of Hydrocarbons, state-owned PDVSA, and the Italian oil company ENI.

“This is one of the most significant bets made in Venezuela in recent times. One of the largest investments being planned for Venezuela to increase production is in partnership with ENI,” she stated. Simultaneously, PDVSA and the British company British Petroleum (BP) signed a memorandum of understanding for the offshore gas exploration in the delta platform, a maritime area in the east of the country bordering Trinidad and Tobago and the Esequibo region, disputed with Guyana and containing at least 1 trillion certified cubic feet of natural gas.

Rodríguez also invited Barbados to invest in Venezuelan oil and gas fields to enhance production and ensure energy security for both nations. Oil Revenues Exceeding $22 Billion The report published by the UNDP stated that the normalization of marketing channels, along with the removal of discounts associated with sanctions, will allow Venezuela to obtain nearly US$22. 6 billion in export revenues in 2026, more than 50% above the levels of 2025.

However, the organization clarified that although an expansion in production is anticipated, the positive effects on revenue and growth will materialize gradually, given the capital-intensive nature of the sector and the investment maturation times. Moreover, it noted that since the oil revenues will be partially channeled through mechanisms under international supervision (from the U. S.

), the direct availability of foreign currency will be limited, affecting the execution of public spending by the Venezuelan government.